Hillbilly wisdom: If your friend is telling you the gossip, then odds are the same friend will tell others about you when you are not present. Don’t expect a different set of values when the situation is turned around. Wouldn’t you hate to be in Taiwan expecting the support of the United States? This protection/ support has been assured in the past. Eleven billion in defensive weapons are undelivered and after Trump’s trip to China- 14 billion more in sales are on hold. Taiwan might not be the flavor of the month right now. Taiwan will have to wait. What kind of deal is it that allows terms made with a third party to disappear?

America does not have the production capacity to fulfill all the needs of the world given the number of conflicts around the globe and the amount of munitions needed to defend various fixed locations at the same time fighting a war. The United States is one of the largest munitions makers but the current rate of consumption is causing a draw down of surplus– the margin needed to maintain the security of the United States. Everything was going as planned until Iran did not fold in a short period of time. Even after 13-14,000 air raids Iran somehow managed not to surrender. Add to this the number of munitions spent defending regional assets and the ensuing cease fire was not totally out of kindness. Time was needed to restock.

The Trump approach is suggesting strongly that other countries, our allies, need to spend more on defense budgets. In a normal environment these increased needs could be meet and regulated through incremental adjustments in expansion (normal development) and the United States could meet the increased needs. The environment is not normal. The United States’ needs have not changed but due to the amount of munitions spent in Iran, reserves have been drawn down. The United States has to maintain enough weapons to secure U. S. safety in case of attack. The threat level determines the level of response. A continuation of a war which is not achieving the goals or targets weakens the United States ability to defend and uphold agreements throughout the world. Under Trump’s leadership, the United States has become undependable, ineffective, and unpredictable.

When customers’ needs are not meet; when they cannot get the amount of help they deem necessary, they go somewhere else for the short term difference. Supply and Demand. Their security is their priority.

Because the United States cannot fulfill orders in a timely manner, former customers are now increasing their individual defense production capacity to meet the demand either through purchases or development of in-house manufacturing. The ensuing arms race in the short term will mean higher prices and profits for those who have the current capacity. The longer term will have more companies/countries competing for a market share. The amount of sales from United States plants will decrease plus the profit margin will decrease.

The rate of replacement for weapons spent cannot keep up with the munitions demand if the United States restarts the bombing campaign in Iran. Therefore, we will extend the cease fire. An agreement to stop hostilities will be reached. But the wisdom exhibited by the present administration at the start of the war is the same wisdom in place now. There is enough if we don’t waste what we have.

Peace brings about an era of prosperity and reductions in defense spending percentage wise against GDP. By drawing other countries into the arms race, the United States current advantages in the arms race will be reduced. But maybe, we will be able to fulfill contracts made with Taiwan and turn our attention to the domestic shortages .